LAS OLAS SMART MONEY

💰 LAS OLAS SMART MONEY

CRAIG BUJNOWSKI | 617-784-7504 | @craigbuj

The Weekly Condo Buy List | September 26, 2026

Signal	This Week
🏆 Best Risk/Reward	WaterGarden #1004 — $829K / $564/SF
💎 Best River House Basis	#405 — $599K / $538/SF
📈 Best Repricing Trade	River House #2604 — $1.499M / $704/SF
🏙️ Best Newer Resale	100 Las Olas #3201 — $1.72M / $785/SF
🔨 Best Renovation Trade	River House #2604
💰 Biggest Seller Move	100 Las Olas #4203 — ~$501K price reduction
⚠️ Biggest Risk	Paying $1,300+/SF just because the building is newer
🔥 90-Day Takeaway	Price dispersion—not broad appreciation—is creating the opportunity

SMART MONEY COMMENTARY

Las Olas isn’t one condo market.

Buyers can still find established luxury inventory around $550–$800/SF, while newer product can command dramatically higher pricing.

That gap is the trade.

I want to buy the right resale basis today and let the continued evolution of Las Olas potentially raise the replacement-cost benchmark around it.

 

🏆 SMART MONEY TOP 10

#	Condo	Ask	$/SF	Smart Buy*	Gap	Score	Seller Pain	Call
1	WaterGarden #1004	$829K	$564	$790K	4.7%	94	Medium	🟡 NEGOTIATE
2	River House #405	$599K	$538	$575K	4.0%	93	Medium	🟡 NEGOTIATE
3	River House #2604	$1.499M	$704	$1.425M	4.9%	92	High	🟡 NEGOTIATE
4	100 Las Olas #3201	$1.720M	$785	$1.600M	7.0%	91	High	🟡 NEGOTIATE
5	WaterGarden #301†	~$850K	~$526	~$800K	~5.9%	90	High	🟡 NEGOTIATE
6	Las Olas Grand #3703	$1.629M	$772	$1.450M	11.0%	89	High	🔵 WATCH
7	River House #1602	$1.150M	$756	$1.075M	6.5%	88	High	🟡 NEGOTIATE
8	100 Las Olas #3804	$1.649M	$883	$1.550M	6.0%	87	Medium	🟡 NEGOTIATE
9	WaterGarden #1509	$899K	$612	$850K	5.5%	87	High	🟡 NEGOTIATE
10	River House #2409	$1.795M	$838	$1.650M	8.1%	85	M/H	🟡 NEGOTIATE

 

🎯 SMART MONEY GAP™

This is the number to watch every week.

🟢 BUY ZONE: Ask within ~3% of estimated Smart Buy
🟡 NEGOTIATE: ~3–10% above
🔵 WATCH: >10% above

This week’s signal:

NO TOP-10 UNIT IS QUITE IN BUY ZONE.

That’s important.

There are attractive condos.

There aren’t many asking prices I’d simply accept today.

 

📊 THE LAS OLAS VALUE CURVE

~$525–$650/SF

WaterGarden value inventory

~$540–$750/SF

River House value inventory

~$650–$800/SF

Las Olas Grand opportunities

~$750–$900/SF

100 Las Olas value opportunities

~$1,200–$1,400/SF

Newer boutique/new-construction territory

Next-generation luxury

Andare / Viceroy / Ombelle benchmarks

 

🔥 SMART MONEY TRADE #1

WATERGARDEN #1004

ASK: $829K
SIZE: 1,469 SF
ASK $/SF: $564

SMART BUY:

~$775K–$800K

Same 1,469-SF footprint:

Unit	Ask	$/SF
#1004	$829K	$564
#1509	$899K	$612
#2709	$1.095M	$745
#1904	$1.175M	$800

SAME SIZE. $346,000 SPREAD.

THE TRADE: I’m not relying on WaterGarden suddenly appreciating. I’m buying essentially the same amount of real estate at a dramatically lower basis than other sellers are asking.

 

🔥 SMART MONEY TRADE #2

RIVER HOUSE #2604

ASK: $1.499M
SIZE: 2,129 SF
ASK: $704/SF

SMART BUY:

$1.40–$1.425M

At $1.425M:

$669/SF

Illustrative value-add:

Purchase: $1.425M
Renovation: ~$175K
Closing/carry reserve: ~$75K

ALL-IN ≈ $1.675M / $787/SF

Hypothetical future value:

$900/SF → ~$1.916M → ~$241K gross spread

$1,000/SF → ~$2.129M → ~$454K gross spread

Before financing, taxes and selling costs.

THE TRADE

The renovation doesn’t create the investment.

THE $669/SF PURCHASE BASIS DOES.

 

🔥 SMART MONEY TRADE #3

100 LAS OLAS #3201

ASK: $1.720M
SIZE: 2,191 SF
ASK: $785/SF

SMART BUY:

$1.55–$1.62M

At $1.60M:

~$730/SF

THE TRADE

This potentially puts a much newer Las Olas residence at a basis approaching premium older-building resale pricing.

That’s where the relative-value case becomes compelling.

 

📈 90-DAY SIGNAL BOARD

Building	What Matters	Smart Money Read
River House	Huge internal $/SF dispersion + amenity thesis	🟢 BUY < ~$700/SF
WaterGarden	Extreme same-size pricing spreads	🟢 BUY BASIS, NOT FLOOR
100 Las Olas	Price cuts opening newer-resale opportunities	🟢 HUNT THE $700s/SF
Las Olas Grand	Attractive scale but sellers need to move	🟡 NEGOTIATE HARD
Sixth & Rio	Large premium to established resale	🔵 WAIT FOR DISCOUNT
Andare	Next-generation luxury benchmark	⚪ BENCHMARK
Viceroy	Future pricing + lifestyle catalyst	⚪ TRACK
Ombelle	Major future supply/amenity catalyst	⚪ TRACK

 

🚨 SELLER CAPITULATION WATCH

100 LAS OLAS #4203

~$3.20M → $2.699M

-$501K / -15.7%

WATERGARDEN #1509

$949K → $899K

-$50K / -5.3%

100 LAS OLAS #3201

$1.790M → $1.720M

-$70K / -3.9%

A price reduction by itself isn’t a reason to buy.

The setup we’re looking for is:

GOOD UNIT + PRICE CUT + ATTRACTIVE BASIS + SELLER LEVERAGE

 

💥 SAME BUILDING. SAME SIZE.

WATERGARDEN

1,469 SF

$829K → $1.175M

$346K SPREAD

RIVER HOUSE

1,869-SF recent sales

$1.00M → $1.60M

$600K SPREAD

100 LAS OLAS

1,404 SF

$1.280M → $1.400M

$120K SPREAD

This is one of the most important parts of the report because it isolates what buyers are being asked to pay for:

FLOOR + VIEW + RENOVATION + SELLER EXPECTATIONS

 

🏗️ CATALYST MONITOR

RIVER HOUSE: amenity improvements and repositioning could narrow the perception gap versus newer luxury.

ANDARE: establishes a much higher next-generation luxury benchmark.

VICEROY: adds residential, hospitality and lifestyle investment to the Las Olas corridor.

OMBELLE: significant new residential inventory and amenities increase downtown’s luxury density.

 

🥇 TOP 3 TO TOUR THIS WEEK

1 — WATERGARDEN #1004

$829K | $564/SF

Smart Money: ~$775K–$800K

Why: Same-size alternatives extend all the way to $1.175M.

 

2 — RIVER HOUSE #2604

$1.499M | $704/SF

Smart Money: ~$1.40–$1.425M

Why: At $1.425M, you’re buying River House at approximately $669/SF with renovation and building-repricing optionality.

 

3 — 100 LAS OLAS #3201

$1.720M | $785/SF

Smart Money: ~$1.55–$1.62M

Why: A ~$1.60M purchase creates a basis around $730/SF in a substantially newer building.

 

💰 INVESTMENT DESK CONCLUSION

WHAT’S MISPRICED?

WaterGarden #1004 — strongest same-size relative-value trade.

River House #2604 — strongest basis + value-add/repricing trade.

100 Las Olas #3201 — strongest newer-resale relative-value trade.

HOW MISPRICED?

The best opportunities remain approximately 4–8% above the levels where I’d want to own them.

ARE SELLERS MOVING?

Yes.

We’re seeing meaningful reductions while large internal building price spreads remain.

That’s exactly what Smart Money should watch.

WHAT PRICE MAKES THE DEAL WORK?

WaterGarden #1004: ~$790K

River House #2604: ~$1.40–$1.425M

100 Las Olas #3201: ~$1.55–$1.62M

Las Olas Grand #3703: ~$1.40–$1.475M

 

💰 LAS OLAS SMART MONEY THESIS

BUY $600–$800/SF.

RENOVATE SELECTIVELY.

WATCH SELLER CAPITULATION.

LET $1,200–$1,400+/SF NEW PRODUCT RESET THE REPLACEMENT-COST CONVERSATION.

The goal isn’t to predict that every Las Olas condo appreciates.

It’s to buy the biggest gap between today’s price and tomorrow’s potential value.

 

LOOKING FOR THE BEST LAS OLAS VALUE?

Send me your budget. I’ll show you what I’d buy — and what I’d pay.

CRAIG BUJNOWSKI | 617-784-7504 | @craigbuj